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Tesla: What Will The Model 3 Cost?
Nov. 15, 2016 8:02 PM ET
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About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Bill Maurer
Bill Maurer
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Summary
•Model 3 deliveries should start within a year.
•Pricing mainly depends on battery options.
•Add-ons can significantly increase average selling price.
By this time next year, we should be seeing Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model 3 on the road. The company's newest model is projected to get at least 215 miles of range while starting at a base price of $35,000 before incentives. While the Model 3 received a few hundred thousand reservations as Tesla looks to the mass market, actual pricing of the vehicle could impact demand. Today, I'll look at some of the key items impacting Model 3 pricing.
What are the battery pack options?
Tesla has two models for sale currently, the S and X. These vehicles are more premium vehicles, and as such, go for much higher selling prices. If you want more range on your vehicle, or you want the lowest 0-60 speed, you have to spend a significant amount more. The table below shows the current Model S and X lineup, given with base model pricing per variant. You can customize a Model S here, and from that page also switch to the X.
- tabela.jpg (14.58 KiB) Visto 6186 vezes
These base prices aren't 100% comparable, because the P100D Model S price includes the Smart Air Suspension and Ludicrous Speed options. For the Model X, all three variants include the Smart Air Suspension, while the P100D includes Ludicrous Speed as well as the Active Spoiler option. These numbers also don't include a reported price increase coming for the Model S.
When it comes to the Model 3, a Tesla executive previously said that the base version will come with a battery pack smaller than 60 kWh. For argument's sake, let's say that the base Model 3, because of its smaller physical size, can carry a 50 kWh battery at the $35,000 base price. That would allow Tesla to have a lineup that could look like the following, in terms of base prices, although it is unlikely at first to have five variants:
•50 kWh: $35,000
•60 kWh: $42,000
•70 kWh: $50,000
•80 kWh: $60,000
•90 kWh: $75,000
There's more of a theoretical price difference as you go up, but that also could be due to Tesla including options on the more expensive models like it does with the S and X. It will also be interesting to see if Tesla actually goes with large battery packs in the Model 3 (80-90 kWh or more) or if the company tries to stay in the 50 kWh to 70 kWh range to keep Model 3's pricing down, therefore pushing the larger battery packs to its luxury models.
What options are given to consumers?
Like all vehicles, the price goes up as you add more and more options. For Tesla, certain paint colors add up to $1,500 to the price. On the Model S, different roofing options can add $2,000, while different wheel sizes and types can add up to $4,500 to your price. Other interiors (including decor) can add another $3,500.
For the Model X, things can be even more expensive. While paint options are the same as the S, different wheels can cost up to $5,500 more. Different interiors can cost $3,300 more, with a carbon fiber upgrade for an additional $250. One thing I should note is that the base price for the X now appears as $88,800 because the design page now includes a $3,300 interior added on. You have to remove the premium interior to get down to the $85,500 detailed in my table above.
Beyond those items, Tesla offers consumers a number of other option packages, including a variety of seating options. The company is also including full-self driving capability hardware on newly produced vehicles (but it has to be activated), and the Model 3 will have that as an option. In the chart below, you can see pricing on certain S and X options, for those items not already included in a vehicle variant. These are the prices for options added on upfront, and those activated after delivery come with an additional cost.
- tabela.jpg (14.58 KiB) Visto 6186 vezes
For the Model 3, some of these options are obviously not going to be available. I don't think you'll be able to add the towing package, and I don't think we'll see rear-facing seats like in the Model S. For consumers, just adding enhanced autopilot and self-driving capability to a base Model 3 will likely put you over $40,000, and that's just for starters. On current models, you can't add full self-driving capability without enhanced autopilot.
What are the other costs involved?
While most vehicles on the road now are powered by some form of gasoline, Tesla models are powered by electricity, so consumers need a way to charge their vehicle. For those that don't already have a proper exterior outlet, your cost will be higher. The actual cost will vary per consumer, and it could be in the thousands of dollars if it is a real complex job (like hiring an electrician to add electricity to a detached garage).
Another potential charge is for those that will be using the Model 3 for long-range travels. Tesla has recently made an update to its supercharger program, providing about 1,000 miles of charging credits to those who buy after a certain date. It's unclear how this will impact the Model 3, but supercharging over a certain point will add to your costs, just like gasoline adds to non-electric vehicles.
Final thoughts
While the Model 3 will start at $35,000, the average consumer is likely to pay a lot more than that for Tesla's newest vehicle. The biggest impact on price will be from battery pack variants, which Tesla has not yet publicly finalized. There also will be several options that can add thousands to the price, such as paint colors, larger wheels, autopilot features, etc.
When all is said and done, bigger battery packs and multiple add-ons will likely push the Model 3's average selling price well north of $40,000, and this doesn't include other items involved with charging. Selling hundreds of thousands of these will add billions to Tesla's revenues, and bulls hope that the company can do this quite profitably. What do you think the Model 3 will cost? Please provide your thoughts in the comments below.
